5 Ridiculous Predictions For The NBA Season
The NBA is officially back!
The NBA is officially back as the 2022-2023 season kicks off with Celtics vs 76ers and Lakers vs Warriors tonight. As we tend to do this time of year, plenty of pundits are making their predictions and staking their claim to particular outcomes.
It’s funny. In today’s hot-take culture there is a strange obsession with being first and being right on a polarizing topic, and being the loudest in case the first two fail. Then, if what you predicted comes to pass, take a victory lap. Maybe two. Shout it from the mountain tops and make sure everyone knows that You. Were. Right. You knew all along when no one else did. Bravo!
If you’re wrong, just stay silent. Cold Takes Exposed may call you out but it will pass, and in the meantime, you can figure out what your next hot take will be. Prognosticate enough and you’re going to be right eventually anyway, so keep firing.
To me, it’s disingenuous; a cheap fuel for debate shows that are more show than debate. But it works. The decibel decathlons may create artificial drama but they keep people entertained, and thus, paid, even if it all is an act1.
What, you think Skip really believes everything that comes out of his mouth?
That being said, predictions have a value that goes beyond hot takes. We make predictions based on the current information that we have and then, in hindsight, they can inform us of where our thinking may have been flawed and adjusted for the future. We do this with stocks, betting, relationships, you name it. We make predictions, evaluate the results, and adjust accordingly as part of everyday life.
That’s where hot takes differ from true predictions: they don’t allow room for adjustment as information changes, instead walking the path of absurdity in the name of shock value and “I-told-you-so” boasts.
This classic bit of dialog from Parks and Rec illustrates the point:
Jeremy Jamm: Why do you keep flip-flopping?
Leslie Knope: Well, because I learned new information. When I was four, I thought that chocolate milk came from brown cows. And then I flip-flopped when I found out there was something called chocolate syrup.
Analysis has to be fluid because, in this world, the times are a changing. Always, and we have to adjust rather than stay static in our beliefs just for the sake of argument. That just might not be quite as fun as red-faced shouting matches about why LeBron James will NEVER be better than Jordan or the REAL reason why the Cowboys don’t need Dak Prescott back.
All of this is a long-winded way of saying that the predictions that I offer here are not hot takes, nor are they things that I would bet on happening. There will be no victory laps from me if any of this comes to pass. Instead, these are all things that I see as realistic possibilities for this coming NBA season that others may not, knowing full well that many of them will be proven incorrect.
And that’s ok. We will take in the information as it comes and adjust accordingly. But for now, here are some things that I see for the coming season that others may not.
Do me a favor: before we dive into everything, help me get the word out and share Lane’s Letters:
Zion Williamson Wins MVP
From not playing at all last season to being awarded the NBA’s highest honor is quite the leap, and that’s precisely why it could happen. You need three things in order to win the MVP: Dominant stats, a winning team, and a damn good narrative.
In the 2020-2021 season (the last one he played in), Williamson posted an absurd stat line of 27 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 3.7 assists while shooting 61% from the field. He was unstoppable at just 20 years old and looks to have slimmed down considerably. Dominant stats? Check.
The Pelicans, meanwhile, are primed to make a leap in the West as their young core grows. Brandon Ingram has blossomed into a quasi-star of his own and the addition of veterans like CJ McCollum and Larry Nance Jr means this team has the ability to be a force. Winning team? Check.
On the narrative side, we sit up and take notice of the unexpected and the Pelicans moving toward the top of the West would be just that. We root for the underdog, and what is more of an underdog story than the small-market team that had their star player stolen by that dastardly big-market Los Angeles club2? Zion leading this team to a high seed would certainly check the narrative box.
Add in the fact that voter fatigue may diminish Nikola Jokic’s chances at a three-peat, Joel Embiid has an injury history and Luka Doncic’s Mavs may take a step back without Jalen Brunson and the path for Zion becomes a bit clearer.
Of course, he has to stay healthy first.
The Lakers Get Booed At Home, And Not Just Russell Westbrook
Look, this brings me no joy. Last season was a miserable one for the Lakers and they need a bounce back in the worst way if only to placate fans who somehow made it through the grind. As I’ve said many times, it was the worst season in Lakers’ history in terms of fan experience and it’s not particularly close. Last season’s Lakers made losing painfully such an art that the term “fake comeback” is now a constant presence on Lakers Twitter.
And that pain is still lingering. We’ve already seen it, as a blowout loss in their final tune-up performance against the Kings and a longer-than-expected injury report for opening night has the purple-and-gold faithful bracing themselves for another agonizing experience.
My customary game day tweet is being met with responses like these:
Such is the current state of Lakers fandom with a roster that is imbalanced in part due to a Russell Westbrook trade that never materialized. Jeanie Buss has made several references to new head coach Darvin Ham being LA’s big offseason move, and he should indeed have the team playing harder than the dismal effort we saw last season, but if that’s not enough LA fans will get fed up fast.
On a team with so few shooters, particularly chilly nights from behind the arc will lead to blowouts and boobirds will emerge from their nests. The first 13 games on the Lakers’ schedule yields just 4 games against clubs that don’t project to be in the playoffs, which could create a bumpy ride from the get-go.
This isn’t even far-fetched; it’s already happened in preseason. There is still reason for optimism, but with the current state of this fan base, the boos are coming. Buckle up, LA.
The Suns Are In The Play-In
I won’t go as far as my Lakers Nation colleague Sean “Spaces” Davis and predict that the Suns will miss the playoffs entirely, but the energy is off with this team and a major fall from grace could be coming.
Last season Phoenix was dominant, securing a franchise-record 64 wins that saw them enter the playoffs at the top of the NBA’s mountain. They were one of the favorites to win it all, then bizarrely no-showed in game 7 of the Western Conference semifinals against the Dallas Mavericks that included the benching of franchise3 big man Deandre Ayton.
Since then, they have endured a contentious free agency standoff with Ayton in which they forced him to go find a deal somewhere else that they matched in order to not give him a fifth year and save a little money4, and Ayton not surprisingly didn't seem to be excited to be back in the desert. He also admitted that he and coach Monty Williams didn’t speak during the offseason. Not great.
Veteran wing Jae Crowder approached the Suns over the offseason about a contract extension (a player who wants to be in Phoenix!), but instead of an extension, the Suns told Crowder that he was losing his starting job AND closing role to Cam Johnson. And on that extension? It’s a no.
Not surprisingly, Crowder didn’t take the news well and has since been banished from the team while they scour the league looking for a trade partner. And get this: Johnson, who the Suns are committing to as their starter for the future, also wasn’t able to see eye-to-eye with Phoenix on a contract extension.
They exiled Crowder in order to give Johnson more minutes but don’t want to pay Johnson either. Incredible.
There’s also the matter of them losing a preseason game to the Adelaide 36ers, a mediocre team even by NBL standards, and winning just one game in preseason. That win, against my Lakers, came via LA deciding to rest Anthony Davis 5 minutes before tip-off and giving nearly the entire second half to their third and fourth stringers while Suns stars Ayton, Devin Booker, and Chris Paul all played 25 minutes or more.5
Oh yeah, and owner Robert Sarver was suspended for doing and saying terrible things and now is in the process of selling the team. Let’s not forget that.
It’s possible that the Suns have enough talent that none of this matters, but the energy around this team is a mess and I think that’s going to matter.
The Kings Make The Playoffs
The longest playoff drought in professional sports may be coming to an end. The Sacramento Kings haven't tasted the postseason since 2006, but there are reasons to believe that this season may finally, truly, be their year.
They have an annual tradition of blowing it on draft night6 but Keegan Murray, the Summer League MVP, looks like the real deal. Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox have had more time to gel, Davion Mitchell is going to continue to be a pest on the perimeter, and Harrison Barnes will be criminally underrated as usual but give the Kings the veteran presence and scoring punch they need as a stretch four.
New arrivals Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk should also pay dividends and head coach Mike Brown has the team playing hard. Sacramento went 4-0 in preseason games, three of which were blowouts and two of them came at the expense of my Lakers, who lost two games by a combined 74 points to the new-look Kings.
It’s far too early to celebrate and the West is incredibly deep, but this is shaping up to be the year the drought finally ends for the Kings.
Multiple Teams Desperately Jettison Talent To Try To “Win” The Tank Race
There is a very clear delineation this season between the teams trying to make the playoffs and those that are tanking. Teams may switch sides during the season out of necessity, but for the moment, the tanking teams are Orlando, Oklahoma City, Houston, Indiana, Detroit, San Antonio, and Utah.
Some of those teams may not want to admit they are tanking (looking at you, Pacers) and others may put forth a real effort to win (Detroit, Houston), but the reality is that all of these teams will be in the mix for a bottom-three finish and thus, a 14% chance to draft Victor Wembanyama (also a 27.4% chance to at a top-2 pick to get Wembanyama or Scoot Henderson).
But they won’t be the only ones in the mix. Teams will lose more than expected in the early parts of the season and pull the plug, knowing that the reward for doing so could be a generational talent in the draft. This means we will see a number of teams willing to move quality players out of their lineup so that they don’t accidentally win too much.
I’m predicting 3-4 “they traded that guy for WHAT?!” moments from the league’s tanking teams and tanking hopefuls this season.
The Hornets are already going to be without LaMelo Ball to start the year and Miles Bridges has bigger problems than playing basketball, plus now James Bouknight has gotten himself into hot water. How long before they ship out some or all of Terry Rozier, Gordon Hayward, and PJ Washington in order to sink that much lower and increase their chances of getting to play Wemby Ball next season?
The Jazz still have Malik Beasley, Jordan Clarkson, and Mike Conley on their roster ready to move. The Spurs have Josh Richardson, Doug McDermott, and Jakob Poeltl.
What if the Wizards struggle, could that finally push Bradley Beal onto the trade market7? Or the Pacers, who were this close to a deal just weeks ago to send Myles Turner and Buddy Hield to the Lakers for Westbrook a $47 million expiring contract plus picks?
The tank race will be vicious this year with what is at stake and that will only create more wild trades for the NBA marketplace.
And don’t be surprised if we see plenty of players held out with “sore backs” or whatever other nondescript injury teams can make up. “DNP-Tanking” shenanigans are on the horizon.
With that, welcome back, NBA!
Quick Notes
Reminder- NBA League Pass is incredibly cheap this year compared to years past. If you ever wanted to watch ALL THE BASKETBALL, now is your time to do it without a guilty conscience. As a long-time purchaser, LP has indeed gotten better over the years and is worth a look.
Keep an eye on the new take-foul rules. We already saw some examples in preseason of players trying to disguise transition-killing take fouls as legitimate plays on the ball in order to avoid triggering the one-plus-the-ball penalty. Here’s to hoping the refs can find a way to enforce the spirit of the rule.
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This is why I’m starting to use the tagline “No hot takes just hoops” for the NBA Front Office Show
I’m talking about Chris Paul, obviously. Did the Pelicans get a haul in return for Anthony Davis and take advantage of the incompetent, arrogant Los Angeles club? I suppose it depends on which tale the Pels want to tell at that given moment.
Do the Suns like Ayton enough to consider him a franchise player? They don’t act like it.
Wouldn’t be shocked to see the NBPA attack the concept of restricted free agency in the next round of collective bargaining
And the Suns resorted to fouling while up 3 with little time left just to ensure the Lakers’ backups’ backups couldn’t get off a 3-point attempt to tie the game. In preseason. Desperation mode: activated.
Marquese Chriss over Domantas Sabonis? Nick rocks!? Marvin Bagley over Luka Doncic!??? Kings fans have felt the pain.
His no-trade clause could be a complicating factor.