Time For The Truth

Sometimes the truth can be tricky...

There is an interesting effect early on in the season where unexpected things happen and we don’t know what to make of it. Is it a new truth revealed or is it simply a small size playing tricks on us?

For example, Brook Lopez came into the NBA as a traditional center who did his work in the paint. Over the course of 8 NBA seasons, he took a total of 31 three-point attempts, and I would imagine if we dug into those attempts most would have come with the shot clock winding down or as a half-court heave at the end of a quarter.

Suddenly, in the 2016-2017 season, Lopez started shooting threes. Lots of them.

We weren’t sure what to think, particularly early on in the season. Was Lopez, who had a full career’s worth of evidence of being a traditional big, suddenly a stretch five? Or was it simply a small sample size and coincidence that would ultimately revert back to normal?

As it turned out, Lopez had indeed reinvented himself. He shot 387 threes that season and today derives a large chunk of his offensive production from his long-range shooting. The early games in 2016-2017 informed us that what was once true, that Lopez was not an outside shooter, may no longer be the case.

On the flip side, take Chris Mihm, the Lakers’ first starting center of their post-Shaquille O’Neal era. Los Angeles had traded for Mihm a few weeks after sending O’Neal to Miami, asking him to fill the biggest shoes in the sport.

At that point, Mihm had five NBA seasons under his belt, which he spent bouncing between starting and reserve roles. A fine player, but not someone who was seen as a clear-cut starter at the game's highest level.

Then, in Mihm’s Lakers debut in the 2004-2005 season, he dropped 23 points and 12 rebounds on the Denver Nuggets. He was a force to be reckoned with. What happened? Had Mihm’s previous teams, the Celtics and the Cavs, overlooked or misused him? Did the Lakers really just unearth an All-Star-level big man out of nowhere?

The answer, as it turned out, was no. That first game was an outlier, as Mihm finished the season with averages of 9.8 points and 6.7 rebounds per game. That early performance didn’t reveal a new truth and Mihm went back to being a role player.

And what about this season? There have already been a number of shocking developments but it’s still incredibly early on and the sample size is small.

Let’s find the truth…

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Are The Lakers Really THIS Bad At Shooting?

As of this writing, the Lakers are dead last in the NBA in three-point percentage at a ghastly 21%. If that number were to stand all season, this would be the worst three-point percentage of any team over the last 20 years by a long shot. Last season’s low mark was held by the Oklahoma City Thunder, who shot just over 32%.

That fact alone suggests that LA’s shooting isn’t going to stay this bad forever, and further analysis backs that up. Based on the shooting percentages and volume of shots taken by each of the current Lakers players in their last NBA season, their combined team percentage should be somewhere around 33%.

That’s still bad, but nowhere near as historically awful as they are currently. Over the long haul, expect to see that percentage tick upward.

Are The Jazz One Of The Best Teams In The West?

The Utah Jazz spent last summer gutting their team, sending Donovan Mitchell to Cleveland and Rudy Gobert to Minnesota while also jettisoning high-level role players Royce O’Neale and Bojan Bogdanovic. They are expected to be one of the worst teams in the league with one of the best chances at winning the tank race and landing the number one pick Victor Wembanyama.

Instead, they are tied for the best record in the West at 3-0 with wins over quality opponents in the Nuggets, Pelicans, and Wolves¹. Without Mitchell, their go-to scorer, Utah suddenly has the highest-scoring offense in the league.

The Jazz didn’t just get lucky and squeak by a few times either. They have largely won convincingly while rolling out a starting lineup of Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson, Lauri Markkanen, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Kelly Olynyk with a first-year head coach in Will Hardy. It’s unbelievable.

Unfortunately, as fun of a story as it would be for this team of castoffs to live out the plot of Major League, there is a lot here that’s unsustainable. The Jazz won’t shoot 42% from three for the season, as Olynyk is currently at 78% from deep while Clarkson and veteran swingman Rudy Gay are both at 50%. Those numbers will cool off, though one area that may be for real is their rebounding, with Jarredd Vanderbilt averaging 13 per game and terrorizing the offensive glass.

The Jazz will ultimately not be a playoff team, but they may be a bit better than we thought until they offload their remaining veterans. The real question is will these early wins cost them precious lottery odds after the season?

Is The Rookie Of The Year Race Over Already?

Yes, yes it is. Paolo Banchero is the real deal, averaging 23 points, 8 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 blocks in three games this season. He’s showing why the Orlando Magic pulled off one of the greatest swerves in NBA Draft history and took him with the first overall pick after everyone believed they were going with Jabari Smith.

Banchero plays the game with an effortlessness that you rarely see from a 19-year-old, getting to the rim and finding his spots whenever he wants. The things we are seeing are sustainable, and his three-point percentage of 23% should actually go up. This rookie class has a ton of intriguing prospects (Keegan Murray may be nipping at his heels all season) but Banchero has the goods.²

It may be boring to call the number one pick the best rookie in the class but Banchero isn’t giving us any other choice. He’s too good.

Christian Wood Is That Guy

I’ve long been a believer in Christian Wood, advocating that my Lakers find a way to pair him with Anthony Davis. It didn’t happen, and now Wood is looking like a perfect fit with the Dallas Mavericks. He’s averaging 25 and 10 while the Mavs just blew out the Grizzlies, last year’s 2 seed in the West, by 41 points.

Wood is doing all of this coming off the bench for the Mavs and getting just 25 minutes per game. While his 56% shooting from the field and 50% from three isn’t sustainable, if Wood stays in this role he’s an early favorite for 6th Man Of The Year and should get the lion’s share of the Mavs’ center minutes even if JaVale McGee is nominally the team’s starter.

What’s the ceiling here? As one source told me, Wood may end up being the best that Luka Doncic has played with when all is said and done. High praise, but the potential is there.

Jayson Tatum Is An MVP Favorite

My Front Office Show co-host Keith Smith predicted that Jayson Tatum would win the NBA’s MVP award this season, and while it may be a homer pick on his part, it’s looking accurate. Through three games, Tatum is averaging a league-high 34.7 points per game to go along with 8 boards, 3 assists, and 1.7 blocks while leading the Celtics to a perfect 3-0 record.

On one hand, you can look at Tatum’s stats and say that 59% shooting from the field isn’t sustainable, and that’s true. He’s not going to be this hot all season.

However, his 33% shooting from three will improve and settle closer to his 38% career mark, and on 8 attempts per game that increase should mitigate a field goal percentage drop to some degree. Plus, his defensive improvement is noticeable and sustainable, even if the advanced stats aren’t showing it yet.

The narratives matter here as well. The Celtics are on a mission after losing in the Finals last year. Playing with a chip on your shoulder and something to prove tends to mean something in the NBA and Boston has that.

Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Doncic, and perhaps my dark horse Zion Williamson will have something to say about Tatum’s MVP run, but he’s clearly in the mix and I’m not expecting that to change.

Speaking of which…

The Pelicans Are One Of The Best In The West

The New Orleans Pelicans, despite an overtime loss to the Jazz, have looked like one of the best teams in the west. It’s no fluke.

The modern NBA is a wings league³, where stacking versatile, switchy defenders who have the ability to stretch the floor is just about a prerequisite for winning. The Pelicans have taken this to heart and have a formidable core that they have acquired either via the draft or trade.

Brandon Ingram, Herbert Jones, Trey Murphy III, and Larry Nance Jr. make the Pels absolutely massive on the wings. All of those long arms create havoc in passing lanes while increasing their ability to contest opposing three-point shooters. It’s the ideal roster build for today’s game.

Add in a veteran scorer and stabilizer in CJ McCollum at point guard and bruising big man Jonas Valanciunas at center and New Orleans has multiple weapons they can turn to on both ends of the floor.

Of course, Zion Williamson is the crown jewel of the Pels’ roster and they will ultimately go as far as he can take them. And that, perhaps, is what’s truly scary: Zion hasn’t quite been himself yet and the Pelicans are already rolling.

Known for his hyper-efficiency, Williamson is only shooting 43% from the field after hitting a ridiculous 61% in the 2020-2021 season, the last in which he played. With a ceiling that goes considerably higher, the Pelicans’ new status as a nightmare in the West is real.

Quick Notes

• NBA commissioner Adam Silver’s reported warning that the league has “put teams on notice” regarding tanking will be something worth keeping eye on. While it may be unseemly for teams to put together rosters built to lose⁴, with a potentially generational talent like Wembanyama looming, you can expect plenty of shenanigans from front offices hoping to bottom out and increase their chances of getting him. That said, organizations tank, but players don't, as the Jazz can attest to.

• Relegation has reportedly also been discussed as a method to combat tanking, which makes me wonder: is it really that big of a deal? The play-in tournament has done its job and cut down on the number of teams packing it in halfway through the season. Plus, fans are smart. They get what’s going on when teams make moves to sink to the bottom. Look at the optimism that now exists in Orlando after they had been stuck in treadmill hell with Nikola Vicevic and Aaron Gordon on their roster. They traded away talent, sunk, and now have a bright future. What’s the problem?

• This substack continues to surprise me with its readership. I’m truly appreciative of all of the kind words I’ve received about this endeavor and so excited about what’s to come. Help me get the word out by sharing and subscribing!

1. Bit of schadenfreude for Jazz fans to beat the Wolves after sending them Gobert

2. Orlando could be cooking up something exciting. Franz Wagner looks great, they have Mo Bamba and Gary Harris on non-guaranteed deals next year to offer at the trade deadline, and they are still finding ways to lose and set themselves up for another top pick.

3. Rob Pelinka might disagree

4. Shoutout to Jake Fischer